Serie A
Juventus vs Bologna
Sunday, Apr 19, 18:45
Consensus
High confidence · 76.6%Juventus
75.9%
book 64.2%
Draw
16.3%
book 21.1%
Bologna
7.8%
book 14.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 71.9% | 24.0% | 4.1% |
| poisson | 88.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% |
| elo | 71.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% |
| market | 64.2% | 21.1% | 14.6% |
- Juventus wPPG 2.09 (home 2.60, D-D-W-W-W)
- Bologna wPPG 0.89 (away 1.00, L-W-L-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.78
- xG Juventus 2.78 vs Bologna 0.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Juventus 1619 vs Bologna 1396
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.48EV +12.3%Edge 11.7%Kelly 25.7%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.78 – 0.33 · No goal 4.4% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| K. Yıldız | Juventus | F | 0.40 | 51.6% | 20.9% |
| J. David | Juventus | F | 0.34 | 45.8% | 17.7% |
| W. McKennie | Juventus | M | 0.24 | 35.0% | 12.4% |
| F. Conceição | Juventus | F | 0.21 | 32.0% | 11.1% |
| M. Locatelli | Juventus | M | 0.11 | 18.5% | 5.9% |
| P. Kalulu | Juventus | D | 0.08 | 14.2% | 4.4% |
| A. Cambiaso | Juventus | M | 0.05 | 8.7% | 2.6% |
| K. Thuram | Juventus | M | 0.05 | 8.7% | 2.6% |
| J. Rowe | Bologna | F | 0.28 | 8.0% | 2.4% |
| S. Castro | Bologna | F | 0.28 | 8.0% | 2.4% |
| R. Orsolini | Bologna | M | 0.24 | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Bremer | Juventus | D | 0.02 | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| L. Kelly | Juventus | D | 0.02 | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| L. Ferguson | Bologna | M | 0.11 | 3.4% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.