Serie A
Lecce vs Fiorentina
Monday, Apr 20, 18:45
Consensus
Low confidence · 44.4%Lecce
45.3%
book 27.3%
Draw
30.1%
book 28.1%
Fiorentina
24.6%
book 44.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 47.5% | 34.1% | 18.4% |
| poisson | 61.5% | 28.3% | 10.2% |
| elo | 45.2% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| market | 27.3% | 28.1% | 44.5% |
- Lecce wPPG 1.10 (home 1.20, L-D-W-D-L)
- Fiorentina wPPG 0.79 (away 0.20, L-L-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.59
- xG Lecce 1.25 vs Fiorentina 0.32
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Lecce 1432 vs Fiorentina 1410
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 3.50EV +58.5%Edge 17.9%Kelly 23.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.25 – 0.32 · No goal 20.8% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| N. Štulić | Lecce | F | 0.21 | 27.0% | 14.9% |
| L. Coulibaly | Lecce | M | 0.17 | 22.8% | 12.3% |
| S. Pierotti | Lecce | F | 0.15 | 19.9% | 10.5% |
| L. Banda | Lecce | M | 0.11 | 15.3% | 7.9% |
| A. Guðmundsson | Fiorentina | F | 0.34 | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| O. Gandelman | Lecce | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Y. Ramadani | Lecce | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| R. Mandragora | Fiorentina | M | 0.24 | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| R. Piccoli | Fiorentina | F | 0.21 | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| D. Veiga | Lecce | D | 0.02 | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| J. Siebert | Lecce | D | 0.02 | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| T. Gabriel | Lecce | D | 0.02 | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| A. Gallo | Lecce | D | 0.02 | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| R. Gosens | Fiorentina | M | 0.11 | 2.9% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 74.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.