Serie A
Pisa vs Genoa
Sunday, Apr 19, 16:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 38.1%Pisa
34.7%
book 29.7%
Draw
42.3%
book 30.7%
Genoa
22.9%
book 39.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 36.9% | 37.7% | 25.4% |
| poisson | 32.8% | 60.6% | 6.5% |
| elo | 33.9% | 31.9% | 34.2% |
| market | 29.7% | 30.7% | 39.6% |
- Pisa wPPG 0.68 (home 1.50, L-L-D-L-D)
- Genoa wPPG 1.13 (away 1.00, W-L-L-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.23
- xG Pisa 0.43 vs Genoa 0.10
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Pisa 1379 vs Genoa 1441
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- draw 3.10EV +31.3%Edge 11.7%Kelly 14.9%
- home 3.20EV +11.1%Edge 5.0%Kelly 5.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.43 – 0.10 · No goal 58.6% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| S. Moreo | Pisa | F | 0.28 | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| M. Tramoni | Pisa | F | 0.15 | 7.4% | 5.6% |
| R. Durosinmi | Pisa | F | 0.15 | 7.4% | 5.6% |
| L. Colombo | Genoa | F | 0.28 | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| M. Léris | Pisa | M | 0.05 | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| M. Højholt | Pisa | M | 0.05 | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| M. Aebischer | Pisa | M | 0.05 | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| S. Angori | Pisa | M | 0.05 | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Vitinha | Genoa | F | 0.21 | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| L. Østigård | Genoa | D | 0.20 | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| A. Calabresi | Pisa | D | 0.02 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| A. Caracciolo | Pisa | D | 0.02 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| S. Canestrelli | Pisa | D | 0.02 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| A. Marcandalli | Genoa | D | 0.08 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 38.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.