Serie A
Roma vs Atalanta
Saturday, Apr 18, 18:45
Consensus
Low confidence · 44.6%Roma
46.8%
book 40.1%
Draw
29.2%
book 28.1%
Atalanta
24.0%
book 31.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 44.1% | 35.2% | 20.6% |
| poisson | 59.3% | 25.4% | 15.3% |
| elo | 39.7% | 29.2% | 31.1% |
| market | 40.1% | 28.1% | 31.8% |
- Roma wPPG 2.27 (home 2.40, W-W-W-W-L)
- Atalanta wPPG 2.38 (away 2.00, W-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.48
- xG Roma 1.39 vs Atalanta 0.53
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Roma 1645 vs Atalanta 1663
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.38EV +11.4%Edge 6.7%Kelly 8.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.39 – 0.53 · No goal 14.6% confirmed XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| M. Soulé | Roma | F | 0.34 | 32.1% | 16.2% |
| S. El Shaarawy | Roma | F | 0.21 | 21.7% | 10.2% |
| D. Malen | Roma | F | 0.15 | 15.8% | 7.2% |
| N. Krstović | Atalanta | F | 0.40 | 13.4% | 6.0% |
| Z. Çelik | Roma | M | 0.11 | 12.1% | 5.4% |
| N. El Aynaoui | Roma | M | 0.11 | 12.1% | 5.4% |
| C. De Ketelaere | Atalanta | F | 0.28 | 9.5% | 4.1% |
| B. Cristante | Roma | M | 0.05 | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| D. Rensch | Roma | M | 0.05 | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| G. Raspadori | Atalanta | F | 0.15 | 5.3% | 2.3% |
| M. de Roon | Atalanta | M | 0.11 | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| R. Vaz | Roma | F | 0.15 | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| L. Venturino | Roma | F | 0.15 | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| B. Zaragoza | Roma | F | 0.15 | 3.3% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 80.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.