Serie A
Napoli vs Cremonese
Friday, Apr 24, 18:45
Consensus
High confidence · 77.8%Napoli
76.6%
book 68.6%
Draw
16.2%
book 21.5%
Cremonese
7.2%
book 9.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 73.3% | 24.0% | 2.7% |
| poisson | 84.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% |
| elo | 73.6% | 15.0% | 11.4% |
| market | 68.6% | 21.5% | 9.8% |
- Napoli wPPG 2.44 (home 3.00, W-W-W-W-L)
- Cremonese wPPG 0.86 (away 1.00, D-D-D-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.06
- xG Napoli 3.76 vs Cremonese 1.07
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Napoli 1664 vs Cremonese 1400
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.36EV +4.2%Edge 8.0%Kelly 11.7%