Serie A
Lazio vs Udinese
Monday, Apr 27, 18:45
Consensus
Medium confidence · 65.6%Lazio
65.1%
book 47.0%
Draw
24.1%
book 28.9%
Udinese
10.8%
book 24.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 65.6% | 26.6% | 7.7% |
| poisson | 83.0% | 15.1% | 1.9% |
| elo | 51.8% | 23.5% | 24.8% |
| market | 47.0% | 28.9% | 24.1% |
- Lazio wPPG 1.76 (home 2.60, D-W-D-W-L)
- Udinese wPPG 1.41 (away 0.80, D-D-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.34
- xG Lazio 1.95 vs Udinese 0.11
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Lazio 1552 vs Udinese 1484
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.00EV +30.2%Edge 18.1%Kelly 30.2%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.95 – 0.11 · No goal 12.8% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| T. Noslin | Lazio | F | 0.28 | 41.2% | 21.2% |
| M. Zaccagni | Lazio | F | 0.28 | 41.2% | 21.2% |
| M. Cancellieri | Lazio | F | 0.15 | 25.2% | 11.6% |
| T. Bašić | Lazio | M | 0.11 | 19.5% | 8.7% |
| D. Cataldi | Lazio | M | 0.05 | 9.2% | 3.9% |
| K. Taylor | Lazio | M | 0.05 | 9.2% | 3.9% |
| E. Hysaj | Lazio | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| M. Gila | Lazio | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| A. Romagnoli | Lazio | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| N. Tavares | Lazio | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| N. Zaniolo | Udinese | F | 0.40 | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| J. Ekkelenkamp | Udinese | M | 0.24 | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| J. Piotrowski | Udinese | M | 0.11 | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| C. Kabasele | Udinese | D | 0.08 | 0.8% | 0.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 82.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.