Serie A
Bologna vs Roma
Saturday, Apr 25, 16:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 58.4%Bologna
19.8%
book 32.8%
Draw
23.8%
book 29.7%
Roma
56.4%
book 37.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 8.4% | 27.3% | 64.3% |
| poisson | 15.5% | 17.3% | 67.2% |
| elo | 20.3% | 19.4% | 60.2% |
| market | 32.8% | 29.7% | 37.5% |
- Bologna wPPG 0.89 (home 0.83, L-W-L-D-L)
- Roma wPPG 2.27 (away 1.80, W-W-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.27
- xG Bologna 0.93 vs Roma 2.20
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Bologna 1396 vs Roma 1645
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.45EV +38.1%Edge 18.9%Kelly 26.3%