Premier League
Manchester United vs Brentford
Monday, Apr 27, 19:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 59.0%Manchester United
59.8%
book 52.8%
Draw
22.8%
book 24.6%
Brentford
17.4%
book 22.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 55.6% | 31.1% | 13.3% |
| poisson | 75.8% | 14.1% | 10.1% |
| elo | 44.6% | 26.8% | 28.5% |
| market | 52.8% | 24.6% | 22.5% |
- Manchester United wPPG 1.64 (home 2.25, L-W-L-W-W)
- Brentford wPPG 1.42 (away 0.86, W-L-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.89
- xG Manchester United 2.48 vs Brentford 0.76
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Manchester United 1521 vs Brentford 1503
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.75EV +4.6%Edge 7.0%Kelly 6.2%