Premier League
Leeds United vs Burnley
Friday, May 01, 19:00
Consensus
High confidence · 72.7%Leeds United
75.8%
book 65.5%
Draw
15.0%
book 22.1%
Burnley
9.2%
book 12.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 62.8% | 28.0% | 9.2% |
| poisson | 93.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
| elo | 53.7% | 22.5% | 23.7% |
| market | 65.5% | 22.1% | 12.4% |
- Leeds United wPPG 0.95 (home 2.00, L-W-L-L-L)
- Burnley wPPG 0.64 (away 0.60, L-L-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.20
- xG Leeds United 6.78 vs Burnley 1.71
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Leeds United 1421 vs Burnley 1339
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.42EV +7.6%Edge 10.3%Kelly 18.1%