Premier League
Burnley vs Manchester City
Wednesday, Apr 22, 19:00
Consensus
High confidence · 77.7%Burnley
5.4%
book 7.7%
Draw
18.1%
book 14.9%
Manchester City
76.4%
book 77.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 1.8% | 24.0% | 74.2% |
| poisson | 4.7% | 19.9% | 75.5% |
| elo | 10.7% | 15.0% | 74.3% |
| market | 7.7% | 14.9% | 77.4% |
- Burnley wPPG 0.64 (home 0.60, L-L-L-W-W)
- Manchester City wPPG 2.55 (away 2.60, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -2.33
- xG Burnley 0.21 vs Manchester City 1.68
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Burnley 1339 vs Manchester City 1735
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- draw 6.25EV +13.2%Edge 3.2%Kelly 2.5%