Premier League
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, Apr 25, 14:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 69.0%Liverpool
70.4%
book 62.2%
Draw
17.3%
book 22.2%
Crystal Palace
12.3%
book 15.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 52.8% | 32.1% | 15.0% |
| poisson | 87.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
| elo | 62.1% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| market | 62.2% | 22.2% | 15.6% |
- Liverpool wPPG 1.96 (home 2.20, D-D-W-W-W)
- Crystal Palace wPPG 1.32 (away 1.80, L-W-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.79
- xG Liverpool 4.38 vs Crystal Palace 1.20
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Liverpool 1598 vs Crystal Palace 1456
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.50EV +5.7%Edge 8.2%Kelly 11.3%