Premier League
Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Sunday, Apr 19, 13:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 69.9%Aston Villa
68.6%
book 54.9%
Draw
20.3%
book 25.9%
Sunderland
11.1%
book 19.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 66.4% | 26.2% | 7.3% |
| poisson | 82.9% | 12.6% | 4.5% |
| elo | 63.6% | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| market | 54.9% | 25.9% | 19.2% |
- Aston Villa wPPG 2.71 (home 3.00, W-W-W-W-W)
- Sunderland wPPG 1.69 (away 1.17, W-L-W-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.38
- xG Aston Villa 2.32 vs Sunderland 0.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Aston Villa 1669 vs Sunderland 1515
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.75EV +20.1%Edge 13.8%Kelly 26.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.32 – 0.33 · No goal 7.0% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| O. Watkins | Aston Villa | F | 0.53 | 55.7% | 26.9% |
| M. Rogers | Aston Villa | M | 0.36 | 43.0% | 18.5% |
| J. McGinn | Aston Villa | M | 0.17 | 23.8% | 9.0% |
| A. Onana | Aston Villa | M | 0.11 | 16.0% | 5.8% |
| Y. Tielemans | Aston Villa | M | 0.11 | 16.0% | 5.8% |
| M. Cash | Aston Villa | D | 0.08 | 12.2% | 4.3% |
| B. Brobbey | Sunderland | F | 0.28 | 9.4% | 3.3% |
| R. Barkley | Aston Villa | M | 0.05 | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| G. Xhaka | Sunderland | M | 0.11 | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| E. Le Fée | Sunderland | M | 0.11 | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| V. Lindelof | Aston Villa | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| P. Torres | Aston Villa | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| L. Digne | Aston Villa | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| N. Mukiele | Sunderland | D | 0.08 | 3.0% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 87.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.