Premier League
Everton vs Liverpool
Sunday, Apr 19, 13:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 50.6%Everton
24.5%
book 30.7%
Draw
25.3%
book 28.0%
Liverpool
50.2%
book 41.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 14.4% | 31.7% | 53.9% |
| poisson | 25.8% | 20.2% | 54.0% |
| elo | 23.5% | 22.3% | 54.2% |
| market | 30.7% | 28.0% | 41.3% |
- Everton wPPG 0.91 (home 1.40, L-L-D-W-L)
- Liverpool wPPG 1.96 (away 1.80, D-D-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.83
- xG Everton 1.25 vs Liverpool 1.92
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Everton 1394 vs Liverpool 1598
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.30EV +15.5%Edge 8.9%Kelly 12.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.25 – 1.92 · No goal 4.2% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| D. Szoboszlai | Liverpool | M | 0.30 | 38.6% | 13.8% |
| F. Wirtz | Liverpool | M | 0.30 | 38.6% | 13.8% |
| K. Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | M | 0.24 | 27.3% | 9.0% |
| C. Gakpo | Liverpool | M | 0.17 | 24.8% | 8.1% |
| R. Ngumoha | Liverpool | F | 0.15 | 21.6% | 6.9% |
| I. Gueye | Everton | M | 0.17 | 20.9% | 6.7% |
| I. Ndiaye | Everton | M | 0.17 | 20.9% | 6.7% |
| Beto | Everton | F | 0.15 | 18.2% | 5.7% |
| J. Frimpong | Liverpool | D | 0.08 | 12.8% | 3.9% |
| C. Jones | Liverpool | M | 0.05 | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| M. Salah | Liverpool | M | 0.05 | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| J. Garner | Everton | M | 0.05 | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| D. McNeil | Everton | M | 0.05 | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| I. Konaté | Liverpool | D | 0.02 | 3.8% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.