Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
Sunday, Apr 19, 13:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 57.5%Nottingham Forest
59.3%
book 64.4%
Draw
22.1%
book 22.0%
Burnley
18.6%
book 13.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 49.9% | 33.2% | 16.9% |
| poisson | 59.9% | 16.9% | 23.2% |
| elo | 56.5% | 21.2% | 22.3% |
| market | 64.4% | 22.0% | 13.6% |
- Nottingham Forest wPPG 1.24 (home 0.75, L-W-L-W-W)
- Burnley wPPG 0.64 (away 0.60, L-L-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.68
- xG Nottingham Forest 2.61 vs Burnley 1.60
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Nottingham Forest 1441 vs Burnley 1339
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 7.00EV +29.9%Edge 4.9%Kelly 5.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.61 – 1.60 · No goal 1.5% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| I. Jesus | Nottingham Forest | F | 0.34 | 61.1% | 20.8% |
| Z. Flemming | Burnley | F | 0.53 | 49.7% | 15.1% |
| M. Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | M | 0.17 | 38.7% | 10.8% |
| I. Sangaré | Nottingham Forest | M | 0.11 | 27.0% | 6.9% |
| O. Hutchinson | Nottingham Forest | M | 0.11 | 27.0% | 6.9% |
| L. Ugochukwu | Burnley | M | 0.24 | 26.7% | 6.8% |
| M. Edwards | Burnley | F | 0.15 | 17.8% | 4.3% |
| J. Anthony | Burnley | M | 0.11 | 13.7% | 3.2% |
| E. Anderson | Nottingham Forest | M | 0.05 | 13.0% | 3.1% |
| D. Ndoye | Nottingham Forest | M | 0.05 | 13.0% | 3.1% |
| O. Aina | Nottingham Forest | D | 0.02 | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| Murillo | Nottingham Forest | D | 0.02 | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| N. Milenković | Nottingham Forest | D | 0.02 | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| N. Williams | Nottingham Forest | D | 0.02 | 6.5% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.