Premier League
Bournemouth vs Leeds United
Wednesday, Apr 22, 19:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 62.9%Bournemouth
63.8%
book 46.3%
Draw
21.2%
book 26.5%
Leeds United
14.9%
book 27.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 56.3% | 30.8% | 12.9% |
| poisson | 87.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% |
| elo | 45.1% | 26.6% | 28.3% |
| market | 46.3% | 26.5% | 27.2% |
- Bournemouth wPPG 1.19 (home 1.60, D-D-W-D-W)
- Leeds United wPPG 0.95 (away 0.20, L-W-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.92
- xG Bournemouth 2.92 vs Leeds United 0.43
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Bournemouth 1442 vs Leeds United 1421
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.00EV +27.7%Edge 17.5%Kelly 27.7%