Premier League
Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Saturday, Apr 25, 16:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 68.4%Arsenal
66.3%
book 61.8%
Draw
19.8%
book 22.1%
Newcastle United
13.8%
book 16.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 71.0% | 24.0% | 5.0% |
| poisson | 64.4% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| elo | 67.3% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| market | 61.8% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
- Arsenal wPPG 2.71 (home 2.50, W-W-W-W-W)
- Newcastle United wPPG 1.61 (away 1.00, L-W-D-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.65
- xG Arsenal 2.45 vs Newcastle United 1.25
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Arsenal 1712 vs Newcastle United 1530
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).