Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia M'gladbach
Saturday, Apr 25, 13:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 68.6%VfL Wolfsburg
13.8%
book 40.7%
Draw
15.9%
book 25.3%
Borussia M'gladbach
70.3%
book 34.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 5.0% | 24.0% | 71.0% |
| poisson | 1.8% | 4.5% | 93.8% |
| elo | 17.0% | 16.1% | 66.9% |
| market | 40.7% | 25.3% | 34.0% |
- VfL Wolfsburg wPPG 0.26 (home 0.00, L-L-L-L-L)
- Borussia M'gladbach wPPG 1.82 (away 2.00, D-W-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.66
- xG VfL Wolfsburg 0.43 vs Borussia M'gladbach 3.85
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo VfL Wolfsburg 1285 vs Borussia M'gladbach 1583
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.75EV +93.4%Edge 36.3%Kelly 53.4%