Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia M'gladbach

Saturday, Apr 25, 13:30

Consensus

Medium confidence · 68.6%
VfL Wolfsburg
13.8%
book 40.7%
Draw
15.9%
book 25.3%
Borussia M'gladbach
70.3%
book 34.0%

Per-model

ModelHomeDrawAway
form5.0%24.0%71.0%
poisson1.8%4.5%93.8%
elo17.0%16.1%66.9%
market40.7%25.3%34.0%
  • VfL Wolfsburg wPPG 0.26 (home 0.00, L-L-L-L-L)
  • Borussia M'gladbach wPPG 1.82 (away 2.00, D-W-L-L-W)
  • Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.66
  • xG VfL Wolfsburg 0.43 vs Borussia M'gladbach 3.85
  • League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
  • Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
  • Elo VfL Wolfsburg 1285 vs Borussia M'gladbach 1583
  • Home-field bonus +60
  • Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices

Value bets

  • away 2.75
    EV +93.4%
    Edge 36.3%
    Kelly 53.4%

Predictions are statistical estimates, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.

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