Bundesliga
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
Saturday, Apr 25, 13:30
Consensus
High confidence · 74.6%1. FSV Mainz 05
10.0%
book 16.4%
Draw
17.0%
book 20.9%
FC Bayern München
73.0%
book 62.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 4.3% | 24.0% | 71.7% |
| poisson | 6.8% | 10.8% | 82.4% |
| elo | 13.5% | 15.0% | 71.5% |
| market | 16.4% | 20.9% | 62.7% |
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 wPPG 0.75 (home 1.00, L-D-W-L-D)
- FC Bayern München wPPG 2.40 (away 2.40, W-L-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.75
- xG 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.70 vs FC Bayern München 2.88
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo 1. FSV Mainz 05 1369 vs FC Bayern München 1719
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 1.50EV +9.5%Edge 10.3%Kelly 19.1%