Bundesliga
1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Saturday, Apr 25, 13:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 35.6%1. FC Köln
28.8%
book 23.2%
Draw
26.0%
book 23.8%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
45.2%
book 53.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 18.3% | 34.0% | 47.7% |
| poisson | 42.5% | 20.8% | 36.7% |
| elo | 31.3% | 29.4% | 39.3% |
| market | 23.2% | 23.8% | 53.0% |
- 1. FC Köln wPPG 0.81 (home 0.80, D-L-L-W-D)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen wPPG 1.49 (away 1.50, W-L-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.60
- xG 1. FC Köln 1.74 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.60
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo 1. FC Köln 1388 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1487
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 4.00EV +15.1%Edge 5.6%Kelly 5.0%