Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Sunday, May 03, 13:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 48.7%FC St. Pauli
55.6%
Draw
22.7%
1. FSV Mainz 05
21.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 36.2% | 37.9% | 25.9% |
| poisson | 76.5% | 11.2% | 12.4% |
| elo | 36.0% | 31.0% | 33.0% |
- FC St. Pauli wPPG 0.56 (home 0.75, L-L-L-W-L)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 wPPG 0.75 (away 0.40, L-D-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.21
- xG FC St. Pauli 3.91 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.70
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC St. Pauli 1325 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 1369
- Home-field bonus +60
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).