LaLiga

Deportivo Alavés vs Mallorca

Saturday, Apr 25, 12:00

Consensus

Medium confidence · 54.0%
Deportivo Alavés
53.3%
book 44.5%
Draw
26.8%
book 28.8%
Mallorca
19.8%
book 26.7%

Per-model

ModelHomeDrawAway
form55.4%31.2%13.5%
poisson64.0%22.0%14.0%
elo47.2%25.6%27.2%
market44.5%28.8%26.7%
  • Deportivo Alavés wPPG 1.29 (home 1.75, L-W-D-L-W)
  • Mallorca wPPG 1.34 (away 1.00, D-L-W-L-W)
  • Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.88
  • xG Deportivo Alavés 1.63 vs Mallorca 0.58
  • League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
  • Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
  • Elo Deportivo Alavés 1519 vs Mallorca 1483
  • Home-field bonus +60
  • Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices

Value bets

  • home 2.10
    EV +12.0%
    Edge 8.8%
    Kelly 10.9%

Predictions are statistical estimates, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.

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