LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad
Sunday, Apr 26, 12:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 24.9%Rayo Vallecano
31.0%
book 38.5%
Draw
31.6%
book 27.2%
Real Sociedad
37.4%
book 34.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 16.9% | 33.2% | 49.9% |
| poisson | 35.0% | 37.0% | 28.0% |
| elo | 27.7% | 26.0% | 46.3% |
| market | 38.5% | 27.2% | 34.3% |
- Rayo Vallecano wPPG 1.22 (home 1.50, D-L-D-W-L)
- Real Sociedad wPPG 2.15 (away 2.17, W-W-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.68
- xG Rayo Vallecano 0.72 vs Real Sociedad 0.61
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Rayo Vallecano 1464 vs Real Sociedad 1613
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- draw 3.40EV +7.4%Edge 4.4%Kelly 3.1%