LaLiga

Real Oviedo vs Elche

Sunday, Apr 26, 14:15

Consensus

Low confidence · 49.5%
Real Oviedo
22.2%
book 41.2%
Draw
28.3%
book 28.9%
Elche
49.5%
book 29.9%

Per-model

ModelHomeDrawAway
form16.8%33.2%50.0%
poisson8.2%22.5%69.4%
elo27.6%26.0%46.4%
market41.2%28.9%29.9%
  • Real Oviedo wPPG 0.47 (home 0.25, L-L-L-W-L)
  • Elche wPPG 1.24 (away 1.00, W-L-D-L-W)
  • Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.68
  • xG Real Oviedo 0.33 vs Elche 1.56
  • League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
  • Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
  • Elo Real Oviedo 1321 vs Elche 1471
  • Home-field bonus +60
  • Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices

Value bets

  • away 3.10
    EV +53.3%
    Edge 19.6%
    Kelly 25.4%

Predictions are statistical estimates, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.

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