LaLiga
Real Oviedo vs Villarreal
Thursday, Apr 23, 19:30
Consensus
High confidence · 73.1%Real Oviedo
9.6%
book 23.5%
Draw
16.9%
book 26.9%
Villarreal
73.5%
book 49.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 3.5% | 24.0% | 72.5% |
| poisson | 2.5% | 6.3% | 91.2% |
| elo | 15.0% | 15.0% | 70.0% |
| market | 23.5% | 26.9% | 49.6% |
- Real Oviedo wPPG 0.47 (home 0.25, L-L-L-W-L)
- Villarreal wPPG 2.20 (away 2.00, W-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.90
- xG Real Oviedo 0.40 vs Villarreal 3.31
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Real Oviedo 1321 vs Villarreal 1649
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 1.90EV +39.6%Edge 23.9%Kelly 44.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.40 – 3.31 · No goal 2.5% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| T. Oluwaseyi | Villarreal | F | 0.46 | 70.3% | 30.1% |
| G. Moreno | Villarreal | F | 0.34 | 58.8% | 21.9% |
| A. González | Villarreal | F | 0.15 | 32.6% | 9.8% |
| T. Buchanan | Villarreal | M | 0.11 | 25.6% | 7.3% |
| F. Viñas | Real Oviedo | F | 0.21 | 12.7% | 3.4% |
| D. Parejo | Villarreal | M | 0.05 | 12.3% | 3.3% |
| P. Gueye | Villarreal | M | 0.05 | 12.3% | 3.3% |
| A. Reina | Real Oviedo | M | 0.11 | 7.0% | 1.8% |
| S. Mouriño | Villarreal | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| P. Navarro | Villarreal | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| R. Veiga | Villarreal | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| S. Cardona | Villarreal | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| T. Fernández | Real Oviedo | M | 0.05 | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| K. Sibo | Real Oviedo | M | 0.05 | 3.2% | 0.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.