LaLiga
Elche vs Atlético Madrid
Wednesday, Apr 22, 17:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 42.7%Elche
28.7%
book 38.3%
Draw
25.9%
book 24.1%
Atlético Madrid
45.4%
book 37.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 14.9% | 32.1% | 53.1% |
| poisson | 31.7% | 24.7% | 43.6% |
| elo | 24.5% | 23.2% | 52.2% |
| market | 38.3% | 24.1% | 37.6% |
- Elche wPPG 1.24 (home 1.50, W-L-D-L-W)
- Atlético Madrid wPPG 2.43 (away 2.33, W-W-W-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.79
- xG Elche 1.09 vs Atlético Madrid 1.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Elche 1471 vs Atlético Madrid 1662
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.50EV +13.5%Edge 7.8%Kelly 9.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.09 – 1.33 · No goal 8.9% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| A. Griezmann | Atlético Madrid | F | 0.46 | 50.7% | 25.1% |
| R. Mir | Elche | F | 0.34 | 25.9% | 10.6% |
| A. Silva | Elche | F | 0.28 | 21.7% | 8.7% |
| T. Almada | Atlético Madrid | M | 0.11 | 15.8% | 6.1% |
| T. Morente | Elche | F | 0.15 | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| M. Neto | Elche | M | 0.11 | 9.5% | 3.5% |
| A. Febas | Elche | M | 0.11 | 9.5% | 3.5% |
| G. Valera | Elche | M | 0.11 | 9.5% | 3.5% |
| R. Belaid | Atlético Madrid | M | 0.05 | 7.4% | 2.7% |
| R. Mendoza | Atlético Madrid | M | 0.05 | 7.4% | 2.7% |
| O. Vargas | Atlético Madrid | M | 0.05 | 7.4% | 2.7% |
| A. Baena | Atlético Madrid | M | 0.05 | 7.4% | 2.7% |
| G. Villar | Elche | M | 0.05 | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| J. Boñar | Atlético Madrid | D | 0.02 | 3.6% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.