LaLiga
Real Sociedad vs Getafe
Wednesday, Apr 22, 18:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 35.5%Real Sociedad
46.0%
book 49.7%
Draw
25.0%
book 30.4%
Getafe
29.0%
book 19.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 58.5% | 29.9% | 11.6% |
| poisson | 21.3% | 14.4% | 64.3% |
| elo | 61.3% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| market | 49.7% | 30.4% | 19.9% |
- Real Sociedad wPPG 2.15 (home 1.50, W-W-W-D-W)
- Getafe wPPG 0.96 (away 1.20, L-D-D-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.01
- xG Real Sociedad 2.09 vs Getafe 3.47
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Real Sociedad 1613 vs Getafe 1477
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 4.75EV +37.6%Edge 9.1%Kelly 10.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.09 – 3.47 · No goal 0.4% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| A. Liso | Getafe | F | 0.15 | 52.2% | 12.5% |
| L. Vázquez | Getafe | F | 0.15 | 52.2% | 12.5% |
| M. Satriano | Getafe | F | 0.15 | 52.2% | 12.5% |
| J. Iglesias | Getafe | D | 0.08 | 33.9% | 7.0% |
| A. Barrenetxea | Real Sociedad | M | 0.17 | 32.4% | 6.6% |
| B. Méndez | Real Sociedad | M | 0.17 | 32.4% | 6.6% |
| O. S. Óskarsson | Real Sociedad | F | 0.15 | 28.5% | 5.7% |
| L. Sučić | Real Sociedad | M | 0.11 | 22.2% | 4.2% |
| B. Turrientes | Real Sociedad | M | 0.11 | 22.2% | 4.2% |
| C. Soler | Real Sociedad | M | 0.11 | 22.2% | 4.2% |
| L. Milla | Getafe | M | 0.05 | 21.8% | 4.2% |
| K. Femenía | Getafe | D | 0.02 | 11.1% | 2.0% |
| A. Abqar | Getafe | D | 0.02 | 11.1% | 2.0% |
| S. Boselli | Getafe | D | 0.02 | 11.1% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.