Ligue 1
Metz vs Paris FC
Sunday, Apr 19, 15:15
Consensus
Low confidence · 34.8%Metz
28.1%
book 27.9%
Draw
29.0%
book 27.9%
Paris FC
42.8%
book 44.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 16.2% | 32.9% | 50.9% |
| poisson | 38.7% | 28.3% | 33.0% |
| elo | 27.1% | 25.6% | 47.3% |
| market | 27.9% | 27.9% | 44.2% |
- Metz wPPG 0.55 (home 1.25, L-L-D-L-D)
- Paris FC wPPG 1.26 (away 1.40, W-L-D-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.71
- xG Metz 1.04 vs Paris FC 0.93
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Metz 1305 vs Paris FC 1462
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.04 – 0.93 · No goal 13.9% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| H. Diallo | Metz | F | 0.34 | 27.6% | 13.2% |
| G. Hein | Metz | M | 0.30 | 25.0% | 11.8% |
| J. Ikoné | Paris FC | F | 0.15 | 16.3% | 7.3% |
| L. Koleosho | Paris FC | F | 0.15 | 16.3% | 7.3% |
| C. Immobile | Paris FC | F | 0.15 | 16.3% | 7.3% |
| A. Camara | Paris FC | M | 0.11 | 12.5% | 5.5% |
| G. Tsitaishvili | Metz | M | 0.11 | 10.2% | 4.4% |
| S. Sané | Metz | D | 0.08 | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| J. Gbamin | Metz | D | 0.08 | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| M. Lopez | Paris FC | M | 0.05 | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| R. Matondo | Paris FC | M | 0.05 | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| M. Munetsi | Paris FC | M | 0.05 | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| A. Touré | Metz | M | 0.05 | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| J. Deminguet | Metz | M | 0.05 | 4.7% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 81.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.