Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais
Sunday, Apr 19, 18:45
Consensus
Medium confidence · 59.3%Paris Saint-Germain
63.2%
book 72.5%
Draw
20.7%
book 16.4%
Olympique Lyonnais
16.1%
book 11.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 65.9% | 26.5% | 7.6% |
| poisson | 50.1% | 20.8% | 29.1% |
| elo | 59.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% |
| market | 72.5% | 16.4% | 11.1% |
- Paris Saint-Germain wPPG 2.17 (home 2.50, W-L-W-D-W)
- Olympique Lyonnais wPPG 1.36 (away 1.00, D-L-L-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.35
- xG Paris Saint-Germain 1.83 vs Olympique Lyonnais 1.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Paris Saint-Germain 1664 vs Olympique Lyonnais 1544
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 8.50EV +36.5%Edge 5.0%Kelly 4.9%
- draw 5.75EV +19.0%Edge 4.3%Kelly 4.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.83 – 1.33 · No goal 4.2% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| O. Dembélé | Paris Saint-Germain | F | 0.46 | 42.9% | 16.0% |
| K. Kvaratskhelia | Paris Saint-Germain | F | 0.40 | 38.4% | 13.8% |
| A. Moreira | Olympique Lyonnais | F | 0.34 | 29.1% | 9.8% |
| Vitinha | Paris Saint-Germain | M | 0.24 | 25.0% | 8.2% |
| Abner Vinícius | Olympique Lyonnais | D | 0.26 | 23.6% | 7.7% |
| B. Barcola | Paris Saint-Germain | F | 0.21 | 22.7% | 7.3% |
| Endrick | Olympique Lyonnais | F | 0.21 | 19.5% | 6.2% |
| R. Yaremchuk | Olympique Lyonnais | F | 0.15 | 14.2% | 4.4% |
| A. Maitland-Niles | Olympique Lyonnais | D | 0.08 | 8.2% | 2.4% |
| M. Niakhaté | Olympique Lyonnais | D | 0.08 | 8.2% | 2.4% |
| K. Lee | Paris Saint-Germain | M | 0.05 | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| W. Zaïre-Emery | Paris Saint-Germain | M | 0.05 | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| O. Mangala | Olympique Lyonnais | M | 0.05 | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| T. Morton | Olympique Lyonnais | M | 0.05 | 5.0% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.