Ligue 1
Toulouse vs AS Monaco
Saturday, Apr 25, 19:05
Consensus
Low confidence · 44.8%Toulouse
46.7%
book 29.1%
Draw
25.4%
book 27.0%
AS Monaco
27.9%
book 43.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 38.3% | 37.2% | 24.5% |
| poisson | 71.6% | 15.0% | 13.4% |
| elo | 43.6% | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| market | 29.1% | 27.0% | 43.9% |
- Toulouse wPPG 1.16 (home 1.20, L-D-W-W-L)
- AS Monaco wPPG 1.39 (away 1.17, W-L-W-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.28
- xG Toulouse 2.55 vs AS Monaco 1.00
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Toulouse 1475 vs AS Monaco 1464
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 3.25EV +51.7%Edge 17.6%Kelly 23.0%