MLB
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, Apr 18, 20:10
Consensus
Medium confidence · 60.0%Miami Marlins
58.0%
book 51.0%
Milwaukee Brewers
42.0%
book 49.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| poisson | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| elo | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| market | 51.0% | 49.0% |
- Miami Marlins wPPG 1.13 (home 1.83, W-D-L-L-D)
- Milwaukee Brewers wPPG 0.86 (away 0.60, L-W-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.14
- xG Miami Marlins 8.14 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.83
- League avg: home 4.60 / away 4.40
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Miami Marlins 1483 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1514
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- home 1.87EV +8.4%Edge 6.9%Kelly 9.6%