K League 1
Ulsan HD vs Gwangju FC
Sunday, Apr 19, 05:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 56.7%Ulsan HD
64.3%
book 80.0%
Gwangju FC
35.7%
book 20.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| poisson | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| elo | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| market | 80.0% | 20.0% |
- Ulsan HD wPPG 0.64 (home 1.75, L-L-L-D-W)
- Gwangju FC wPPG 1.08 (away 1.00, D-W-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.11
- xG Ulsan HD 0.46 vs Gwangju FC 0.24
- League avg: home 3.10 / away 2.90
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Ulsan HD 1375 vs Gwangju FC 1466
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- away 6.00EV +114.2%Edge 15.7%Kelly 22.8%