UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Thursday, Apr 30, 19:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 49.1%Nottingham Forest
25.6%
book 37.6%
Draw
25.0%
book 28.9%
Aston Villa
49.3%
book 33.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 8.0% | 26.9% | 65.1% |
| poisson | 31.9% | 19.8% | 48.3% |
| elo | 21.9% | 20.8% | 57.3% |
| market | 37.6% | 28.9% | 33.5% |
- Nottingham Forest wPPG 1.24 (home 0.75, L-W-L-W-W)
- Aston Villa wPPG 2.71 (away 2.17, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.31
- xG Nottingham Forest 1.59 vs Aston Villa 2.00
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Nottingham Forest 1441 vs Aston Villa 1669
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.80EV +38.2%Edge 15.8%Kelly 21.2%