UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Bayern München
Tuesday, Apr 28, 19:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 28.1%Paris Saint-Germain
36.9%
book 42.1%
Draw
24.8%
book 24.9%
FC Bayern München
38.3%
book 32.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 36.7% | 37.7% | 25.6% |
| poisson | 29.4% | 14.6% | 56.0% |
| elo | 34.7% | 31.7% | 33.7% |
| market | 42.1% | 24.9% | 32.9% |
- Paris Saint-Germain wPPG 2.17 (home 2.50, W-L-W-D-W)
- FC Bayern München wPPG 2.40 (away 2.40, W-L-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.23
- xG Paris Saint-Germain 3.04 vs FC Bayern München 4.00
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Paris Saint-Germain 1664 vs FC Bayern München 1719
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.88EV +10.4%Edge 5.4%Kelly 5.5%