Swiss Super League
FC Thun vs FC Lugano
Saturday, Apr 25, 18:30
Consensus
High confidence · 72.8%FC Thun
70.7%
book 67.8%
FC Lugano
29.3%
book 32.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| poisson | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| elo | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| market | 67.8% | 32.2% |
- FC Thun wPPG 1.76 (home 2.50, W-W-W-W-W)
- FC Lugano wPPG 1.34 (away 2.17, L-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.86
- xG FC Thun 0.52 vs FC Lugano 0.29
- League avg: home 3.10 / away 2.90
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Thun 1624 vs FC Lugano 1525
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- home 1.76EV +24.4%Edge 2.9%Kelly 32.1%
- away 3.70EV +8.5%Edge -2.9%Kelly 3.1%