NBA
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, Apr 18, 19:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 54.3%Denver Nuggets
59.4%
book 70.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves
40.6%
book 29.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| normal | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| elo | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| market | 70.8% | 29.2% |
- Denver Nuggets wPPG 1.05 (home 1.50, W-L-W-L-W)
- Minnesota Timberwolves wPPG 1.18 (away 3.00, L-L-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.21
- Expected score Denver Nuggets 108.1 vs Minnesota Timberwolves 107.7
- Margin μ=2.85, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 59.4%
- Elo Denver Nuggets 1571 vs Minnesota Timberwolves 1585
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- away 3.30EV +34.1%Edge 11.5%Kelly 14.8%