Swiss Super League
FC Thun vs Basel
Saturday, Apr 18, 18:30
Consensus
High confidence · 80.3%FC Thun
78.5%
book 69.5%
Basel
21.5%
book 30.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| poisson | 82.6% | 17.4% |
| elo | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| market | 69.5% | 30.5% |
- FC Thun wPPG 1.76 (home 2.50, W-W-W-W-W)
- Basel wPPG 1.09 (away 2.00, D-L-D-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.14
- xG FC Thun 1.24 vs Basel 0.39
- League avg: home 3.10 / away 2.90
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Thun 1624 vs Basel 1473
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- home 1.71EV +34.2%Edge 8.9%Kelly 48.1%